🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still